Nate Cohn at the Upshot compares official voter files to The Upshot’s pre-election turnout projections:
"Large numbers of white, working-class voters shifted from the Democrats to Mr. Trump. Over all, almost one in four of President Obama’s 2012 white working-class supporters defected from the Democrats in 2016 ...
On average, white and Hispanic turnout was 4 percent higher than we expected, while black turnout was 1 percent lower than expected. ...
The increase in white turnout was broad, including among young voters, Democrats, Republicans, unaffiliated voters, urban, rural, and the likeliest supporters of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump. The greatest increases were among young and unaffiliated white voters. ...
If turnout played only a modest role in Mr. Trump’s victory, then the big driver of his gains was persuasion: He flipped millions of white working-class Obama supporters to his side."
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